Forthcoming bloodshed in Iraq
June 26th, 2009In view of the planned withdrawal of US and other troops from Iraq, we will see the way in which a typical Arab country engages in nation-building. I myself, rightly or wrongly, supported the invasion by the USA and allied forces to overturn a brutal dictator. Regardless of whether Saddam Hussein finally possessed chemical and biological weapons, or nuclear weapons, it is certain that he possessed and used the former, and was certainly known to be working toward the latter.
The invasion was a pushover, as expected, but from then on the situation went about as pear-shaped as anything could be. The US thought that the Iraqis would rise to the occasion, embrace freedom, and start to build a civil and democratic society. But they basically trashed the joint, fouled their own nest, and squandered a golden opportunity to build and prosper. A panoply of militant and terrorist groups took over and made sure that the state would remain defunct. (This is what the Palestinians have always done, by the way.)
The situation was not helped by the Americans apparently having no Plan B. They never used enough troops to control the situation properly to the point where utilities were repaired and commerce and industry could recover. Instead the terrorists started to control the situation almost immediately after that famous statue tumbled down, and they concentrated on keeping essential utilities unrepaired. The Americans perpetrated in Iraq one of the biggest fuck-ups in modern history. President Bush and his idiotic, bumbling, lying, pig-headed cronies will go down in history as a phenomenal failure in Iraq. But it may well be that the failure of the Iraqi nation to build from the ruins will be a comparable failure. Time will tell, but I fear for the worst
It always amazes me that some “insult” or other to Muslims, or some excess bloodshed or errors by Western forces toward Muslims brings hundreds of thousands of rent-a-Muslim demonstrators out into the streets of the world. But when the statistics are done, the Muslims for years now have been slaughtering each other in Baghdad and beyond in extraordinary numbers. And it’s indiscriminate. Even now, bombings of markets, mosques, offices, police stations, pilgrims and funeral processions continues daily. There have been thousands of summary shootings and be-headings. They seem to revel in the gore of cut throats, and bodies torn asunder by courtesy of modern explosives. Not just opposing militants, but bystanders, shop-keepers, women, children and the elderly, all helpless in the face of ruthless savagery in the name of Allah. Islam seems to be a death cult.
And now it’s increasing as the time draws near when all that will be there will be the Iraqi police and armed forces- oh! - and their Western trainers. Now is the time when we will see the furious crescendo of bloodshed as the Shiite and the Sunni Muslims fight each-other, the both of them turn against the Kurds, and the Muslims turn on any remaining minority religions. I think that the Shiites will split and migrate to the south and east, next to Shiite Iran, the Sunnis will take the west and part of the north, and the Kurds (who are not Arabs) will try to split off the north. The latter will be especially contentious, because that’s where a lot of the oil wealth is found. There will possibly tens of thousands of deaths, and
After the blood shed there will be mass movements of these two different sects of Islam, who have always hated each-other from the very time of the death of Mohommed. Ever since then They’ve been fighting over the question of succession to the leadership of Islam. Although both sects are found together in all Muslim countries, one or the other is usually predominant. Iran is the centre for Shia Islam, and seeking to dominate the Middle East, with its work on the nuclear bomb. Nearby Saudi Arabia is mainly Sunni Islam, and so are most other Muslim countries, which are very worried by Iran’s search for dominance. The struggle is political, economic, spiritual and also has weird mystical overtones to it when you read up on various aspects of Islamic history.
I am pretty certain that most Iraqis just want to live a peaceful and prosperous life, following the main tenets of Islam in a reasonably civilized manner. They can do that, as do Christians and Jews, by consciously choosing to ignore the various unfortunately cruel, unjust and bloody-minded sections of the scriptures of their religion. In the latter two, at least in modern times, believers can choose whether or not to adhere to particular features of the chosen religous practice, or to choose a different religion, or in fact to have no religion at all.
Not so in Islam. If your parents are Muslim, you’re a Muslim for life. The Koran teaches that the penalty for apostasy (converting to another religion ) is death. It is mandatory, and what’s more, it is carried out in various Muslim countries this very day - especially in Saudi Arabia, where executions are publicly carried out regularly in a sports stadium. So you, see, Iraqis have no choice but to remain Muslims, whether they like it or not. They can’t even change from Shia to Sunni, or vice versa.
Some Muslims regard President Obama as a Muslim, because his father was Muslim and his early education was in an Indonesian Muslim school. He’s now apparently a Christian. For millions of Muslims that means that he’s an apostate and shoud be put to death.
So, regardless of there having been reasonably free and proper elections in Iraq, and the establishment of the essential elements of a democratic state, I am afraid that shortly this will all fall apart. Arab societies are very tribal, and this dynamic runs counter to democracy as we understand it. It is already a kleptocracy, as are all Muslim countries, and I foresee the disintegration of whatever elements of civil society exist. No doubt, from the time of the next election (if we get that far), there will be increading clashes between armed groups, private militias, and the emergent use of advanced weaponry which is already flowing in from Iran.
The Sunnis will be aided by Wahabis, Al-Qaeda and so on from Saudi Arabia and Syria (next door, to the west), and the Shias will be supported by arms and personnel from Iran (to the east). I think the Americans will not have the stomach for further intervention, and they antagonists will be left to fight it out however they will. Pity the poor average Iraqi, mentioned earlier, who just wants a peaceful and prosperous life, who will be mercilessly sandwiched.
The crunch for the West will be if there is any serious disruption in the flow of crude oil from Iraq. That is critical for us all, even for Australians, and it is in fact equally important for even the most rabidly anti-American Iraqi, because Iraq depends upon the export earnings from the oil-fields.
It’s a serious situation, and a very complex one, but I do fear that much blood will flow, mostly innocent blood.











